Estimate team strength
Separate attack and defense ratings, home advantage, rest, and time-weighted results. Optional inputs include pregame xG, special teams, lineups, and goalies.
Connecting to your API…
THE PROBABILITY DESK
October 9 slate.
October 9 matchups. Hard Rock Bet’s posted prices.
October 9, 2026 · checked 8:04 AM ET. Hard Rock public-board snapshot. Prices are not refreshing automatically. Model forecasts are not loaded.
Games in workspace
04October 9, 2026
Markets per game
03ML · Puck line · Total
Sportsbook
Hard RockChecked 8:04 AM ET
Real-world validation
PendingNo verified win rate
4 MATCHUPS
Full-game markets include overtime and shootouts.All times Eastern
MODEL FIRST. PRICE SECOND.
Build your ticket.
One selection to a 20-leg parlay. Start with a strategy.
Checking real model forecast coverage…
1 · single20 · parlay
Make it yours
Tap a price to add or remove a leg. One selection per market, maximum 20.
Automatic picks require fresh real model forecasts. Model percentages come from the engine’s score simulations. Odds are used for payout and estimated value; market-implied percentages are comparison data only. Highest Percentage ranks the lower sensitivity estimate where supplied, otherwise the model probability. Medium and Full Bomb apply research thresholds, not validated betting rules. No forecast is replaced with a sportsbook probability. The independence assumption is approximate, especially when teams repeat across dates. Integer lines are currently excluded from the parlay calculator. Longer parlays can have very low win chances, even in Highest Percentage mode. Public-board prices may differ from your Florida account; bookmaker limits and payouts are unverified.
Checking available prices…
Checking available prices…
ENGINE 0.2
Inside the model.
Forecast a score distribution. Derive every market from it.
ONE GAME, THREE MARKETSProbability first.
Probability first.
Price second.
A favorite is not automatically good value. This engine estimates win, loss, and push probabilities, then compares them with the price you supply.
Model the game
A shared game-pace factor connects both teams’ scoring. Learned late-game hazards respond to time remaining and the score.
Settle every outcome
Resolve regulation ties with an overtime/shootout winner model. Derive all market probabilities from the same final scores, including pushes.
Test what holds up
Walk forward through historical games using only previously available data. Compare calibration and probability errors against simple and market benchmarks.
VALIDATION STATUSSoftware verified.
Software verified.
Prediction edge unproven.
18 / 18Software checks passed on synthetic inputs
100,000Simulations per example game
Not completedReal-NHL performance and profitability testing
What the model needs
Authorized historical game data, genuinely pregame feature snapshots, and timestamped odds. A Python run creates the forecast files used here. This site displays those results and calculates price comparisons; it does not train the engine. Public-board observations are collected separately.
Simulation count is not an accuracy score. The displayed uncertainty ranges depend on model assumptions and do not guarantee outcomes. Bookmaker settlement rules must match the full-game convention.
YOUR INPUTS, IN VIEW
Data center.
Load the engine’s results into your workspace.
HARD ROCK BET · PUBLIC BOARD
Observed odds, saved automatically
The dashboard checks the board every 60 seconds while open. An observation timestamp records when we retrieved it; the provider does not expose the age of each price. Florida account prices remain unverified.
Listed game times come from the sportsbook. This feed may omit games or markets. It is not a complete official NHL schedule.
IMPORT FORECASTSCSV
Bring your model results.
Select these two files from the same prediction run. Owner uploads are saved to the public forecast archive with their actual receipt time.
game_forecasts.csvMatchups, expected scores, and run details
market_probabilities.csvWin, loss, and push probabilities at each line
Maximum 3 MB per file; combined upload must be under 4 MB. Synthetic and late forecasts are excluded from performance tracking.
DATA STATUS
Forecast sourceNo model forecast loaded
Official NHL feedNot connected
Sportsbook pricesChecking public board…
While openChecks every 60 seconds
Model validationPending real-NHL tests
Saved model runs
View published model runs on any device. No sign-in required.
Forward performance
0Games scored
—Moneyline accuracy
—Brier score
Requires real forecasts saved before verified game starts and final results. No verified returns yet.
Observed price history
Loading saved observations…
Only changes observed during successful checks can be recorded.
View public APIModel development
- Train the engine on authorized NHL history with verified timestamps.
- Run predictions for your fixture list and export both CSV files.
- Import those files here, choose a market, and enter the odds you want to compare.
Imported files retain their original timestamps and data-quality flags. Importing a forecast does not establish that its probabilities are accurate or profitable.
Owner administration · Public browsing does not require an account.